BARONE ON DEM TACTICS – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:  Michael Barone, a truly distinguished political analyst, dissects the health-care drama on Capitol Hill, one of the most exciting (and depressing) legislative battles of our lifetime:

Even when the party's president and policies are widely popular, some of its House members will be representing districts where that is not so, where they win because of personal popularity or historical tradition, constituency services or generous earmarking. Of the 253 current House Democrats, 45 represent districts that voted for John McCain. Even Democratic policies that are popular nationally aren't popular in most of these districts.

But the Democratic health care legislation is not popular nationally. Barack Obama won nationally 53 percent to 46 percent, but the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls shows disapproval of health care at 49 percent to 41 percent. Health care 2010 is polling 12 points behind Obama 2008.

And...

...there are only 115 Democratic members in seats where the putative support for the health care legislation is 50 percent or higher — 101 votes short of the 216 votes needed for a majority in a House with vacancies in four Democratic seats.

Barone points out that the Dem leaders in the House represent safe districts.  Not so their troops:

For many Democratic members — especially the 37 Democrats who voted no last November — the best thing to happen is for the bill not to come to a vote on the floor and just go away...

...My sense is that the current Democratic leadership is at least 10 votes short of the 216-vote majority. So far none of the 37 November no votes has publicly committed to voting yes, not even Dennis Kucinich, who objects to the legislation because it doesn't go far enough. And some of the yeses, like Bart Stupak, sponsor of the abortion funding ban in the House bill, are committed noes.

Finally...

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and White House press secretary Robert Gibbs confidently insisted last weekend that the bill would pass this week. Maybe not.

COMMENT:  The obscenity here is to try to seize one sixth of the nation's economy, and a sector where life and death is involved, with so little support from the public.  The arrogance of the Democratic leadership is breathtaking.  Normally, major, nation-changing legislation has at least some bipartisan support.  The civil rights laws of 1964, which changed the nation, had bipartisan backing.  So did Medicare.  What's happening now is almost unprecedented, and dangerous.

March 17, 2010